Background

Notes and format last updated Apr 16, 2020

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines using rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines using rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 New York 15,647
2 New Jersey 13,358
3 Massachusetts 9,025
4 Rhode Island 8,137
5 Connecticut 7,769
6 District of Columbia 6,125
7 Louisiana 6,023
8 Delaware 4,861
9 Illinois 4,176
10 Michigan 4,140
11 Pennsylvania 3,766
12 Maryland 3,596
13 South Dakota 2,769
14 Indiana 2,649
15 Colorado 2,640
16 Georgia 2,395
17 Mississippi 2,289
18 Iowa 2,264
19 Nebraska 2,239
20 Washington 1,929
21 Virginia 1,856
22 Nevada 1,640
23 New Mexico 1,626
24 New Hampshire 1,578
25 Florida 1,568
26 Tennessee 1,546
27 Ohio 1,542
28 Kansas 1,472
29 Utah 1,457
30 Alabama 1,441
31 North Dakota 1,400
32 Vermont 1,387
33 California 1,277
34 Missouri 1,256
35 South Carolina 1,183
36 Wisconsin 1,177
37 Arkansas 1,087
38 Kentucky 1,053
39 Arizona 1,050
40 Idaho 1,041
41 Texas 1,002
42 North Carolina 1,001
43 Oklahoma 914
44 Minnesota 910
45 Maine 814
46 Wyoming 717
47 West Virginia 627
48 Oregon 595
49 Alaska 482
50 Puerto Rico 481
51 Hawaii 430
52 Montana 423

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Rhode Island 287
2 New Jersey 280
3 Massachusetts 277
4 New York 212
5 District of Columbia 203
6 Delaware 195
7 Illinois 185
8 Connecticut 159
9 Nebraska 145
10 Iowa 134
11 Maryland 124
12 Pennsylvania 117
13 Michigan 105
14 Kansas 102
15 New Mexico 93
16 Indiana 92
17 Virginia 90
18 Colorado 81
19 Mississippi 80
20 Minnesota 78
21 South Dakota 76
22 Georgia 69
23 Louisiana 66
24 North Dakota 54
25 New Hampshire 50
26 Ohio 48
27 Utah 45
28 California 44
29 Wisconsin 44
30 North Carolina 43
31 Arizona 42
32 Kentucky 41
33 Nevada 37
34 Tennessee 37
35 Washington 36
36 Alabama 35
37 Texas 35
38 South Carolina 31
39 Missouri 29
40 Oklahoma 28
41 Florida 24
42 Arkansas 23
43 Maine 17
44 Puerto Rico 15
45 Idaho 14
46 Wyoming 14
47 Oregon 12
48 West Virginia 8
49 Vermont 5
50 Alaska 4
51 Hawaii 2
52 Montana 1

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New York 941
2 New Jersey 813
3 Connecticut 633
4 Massachusetts 516
5 Louisiana 400
6 Michigan 379
7 District of Columbia 317
8 Rhode Island 251
9 Pennsylvania 201
10 Illinois 186
11 Maryland 173
12 Delaware 156
13 Indiana 149
14 Colorado 134
15 Washington 107
16 Georgia 105
17 Mississippi 87
18 Ohio 83
19 Nevada 78
20 Vermont 78
21 Virginia 64
22 Minnesota 60
23 Florida 58
24 New Mexico 58
25 Oklahoma 56
26 Alabama 55
27 Missouri 55
28 Wisconsin 54
29 Kentucky 53
30 California 52
31 New Hampshire 52
32 Iowa 51
33 South Carolina 47
34 Kansas 45
35 Arizona 43
36 Maine 39
37 Nebraska 36
38 North Carolina 36
39 Idaho 35
40 Tennessee 30
41 Texas 28
42 North Dakota 24
43 Oregon 24
44 West Virginia 24
45 Arkansas 20
46 South Dakota 19
47 Puerto Rico 16
48 Montana 14
49 Utah 14
50 Wyoming 12
51 Hawaii 11
52 Alaska 9

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 44
2 Massachusetts 27
3 Connecticut 22
4 District of Columbia 18
5 New York 17
6 Pennsylvania 16
7 Michigan 12
8 Louisiana 11
9 Maryland 10
10 Rhode Island 10
11 Delaware 9
12 Illinois 9
13 Indiana 8
14 Ohio 6
15 Colorado 4
16 Georgia 4
17 South Carolina 4
18 Iowa 3
19 Minnesota 3
20 Mississippi 3
21 New Mexico 3
22 Virginia 3
23 Alabama 2
24 California 2
25 Florida 2
26 Missouri 2
27 Nebraska 2
28 Nevada 2
29 New Hampshire 2
30 Oklahoma 2
31 South Dakota 2
32 Washington 2
33 Wisconsin 2
34 Arizona 1
35 Arkansas 1
36 Kentucky 1
37 North Carolina 1
38 Texas 1
39 Vermont 1
40 West Virginia 1
41 Alaska 0
42 Hawaii 0
43 Idaho 0
44 Kansas 0
45 Maine 0
46 Montana 0
47 North Dakota 0
48 Oregon 0
49 Puerto Rico 0
50 Tennessee 0
51 Utah 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
New York New York 102,836 1 99
Lincoln Arkansas 62,500 2 99
Bledsoe Tennessee 39,432 3 99
Rockland New York 35,937 4 99
Dakota Nebraska 35,154 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 3,845 220 92
Richland South Carolina 2,162 463 85
Pierce Washington 1,587 666 78
Orange California 762 1252 60
York South Carolina 747 1276 59

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
New York New York 7,683 1 99
Randolph Georgia 2,803 2 99
Terrell Georgia 2,227 3 99
Early Georgia 1,963 4 99
Nassau New York 1,556 5 99
Richland South Carolina 79 548 82
Pierce Washington 56 707 77
Davidson Tennessee 40 870 72
Orange California 14 1278 59
York South Carolina 11 1328 57

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons